Description: This paper presents the modeling of mortality risk from exposure to a potential future extreme event such as a natural disaster and a terrorist attack, and its impact on life insurance. With this new model, quantities associated with the total force of mortality such as survival function are derived and the impact of mortality risk on life insurance is examined.

Description: This article summarizes presentations given at the 1998 Bowles Symposium concerning the use of genetic testing in underwriting life insurance and the medical, legal and ethical issues that arise.

Description: This article contains reviews of the following books published in 1987-1990: 1. 'Pension Age in a Changing Society' by Patrick Carroll, 2. 'Life Insurance Mathematics' by Hans U. Gerber, 3. 'A History of Probability and Statistics and Their Applications before 1750' by Anders Hald, 4. 'Medical Risks: Trends in Mortality by Age and Time Elapsed' by Edward A. Lew, 5. 'Canadian Handbook of Flexible Benefits' by Robert J. McKay, 6. 'Canadian Insurance Practices' by Franklin Reynolds, 7. 'On the Shoulders of Giants' edited by Lynn Arthur Steen, 8. 'The Value of Pensions in Divorce: What It Is and How to Use It' by Marvin Snyder, 9. 'Life Insurance Accounting' by Edward P. Brunner and Paul E. Heacock, 10. 'Duration Analysis: Managing Interest Rate Risk' by G.O. Bierwag, and 11. 'Actuarial Evidence: Valuing Past and Future Income' by Donald R. Anderson. Notices of other articles and publications are also included. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1990, Vol. 42.

Description: This paper presents best upper and lower bounds on the expected value of a reinsurance payment under the terms of a contract written on a random loss with known moments. Bounds on the expected exercise value of a financial option are considered also because the mathematical model used for valuing options is similar to that used in reinsurance net premium calculations. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House ARCH 1990 Vol. 1.

Description: The values of life insurance and annuity liabilities move in opposite directions in response to a change in the underlying mortality. Natural hedging utilizes this to stabilize aggregate liability cash flows. Our study shows empirical evidence that insurers who utilize natural hedging also charge lower premiums than otherwise similar insurers. This indicates that insurers who are able to utilize natural hedging have a competitive advantage. In addition, we show how a mortality swap might be used to provide the benefits of natural hedging to a firm that writes only one of the lines of business.

Description: This is a recommendation for SOA scientific publications including the types of papers, schedules and governance of each.

Description: This paper employs the theory of real option pricing to address problems in the area of operational risk management. Particularly, it develops a two-stage model to help firms determine the optimal triggers in the event of an influenza pandemic. The first stage proposes a regime-dependent epidemic model to simulate the spread of the virus, depending on whether the firm is active or inactive. The second stage views the reactivation decision as a call option and the suspension decision as a put option, and uses dynamic programming method to determine the optimal switching thresholds.

Description: We devise an approach, using tobit models for modeling annuity lapse rates. The approach is based on data provided by the Society of Actuaries’ Risk Management Task Force. Kim [2005a] models annuity lapse rates using a logit model and the same US data (he also used Korean data separately). We find that the tobit model is a more than suitable approach for all levels of the explanatory variables including interest rates, unemployment rates, and GDP growth rates. Specifically, policyholder behavior in the tail of the distribution of lapse rates is explained as well as it is in the normal range of lapse rates.

Description: Shows how to use personal information such as medical history, family characteristics, etc. in a logical statistical fashion for the purpose of modifying an existing mortality table to reflect the collected underwriting information.

Description: 1992 SOA Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C. In this session on Single Premium Deferred Annuities, the panelists discussed the results of the 1992 Single Premium Deferred Annuity Persistency Study and they identified some additional research in the area of interest-sensitive cash-flow analysis.